Analyst: The market from September 24th to October 8th may not be interpreted in the short term. Today, the A-share market opened, and the three major indexes all opened sharply higher. The Shanghai Composite Index opened 2.58%, the Shenzhen Component Index opened 3.66%, the Growth Enterprise Market Index opened 4.88%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened less than 50 stocks. In addition, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index opened up 3.21%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 4.24%. So, how to interpret the future market? Analysts believe that the market from September 24 to October 8 may not be interpreted in the short term. After all, the chip pressure still exists, but the bull market atmosphere may last longer and spread more widely. From the short-term perspective, three major signals have also appeared. First of all, the one ETF Southern China A-Share CSI 500, which was first opened in the peripheral Japanese stock market, fell slightly after it surged. Yesterday, the Nasdaq China Jinlong Index also fell back in the late session, and after the A50 opened in the morning, it also fell slightly, indicating that the funds may be more rational. Second, before the surge, the intensity of foreign ambush was not as great as last time. Yesterday's data showed that the global position of Long onlys has returned to the level of June. The low option trading volume of FXI/KWEB also shows the slight degree of macro investors' positions. It may also mean that the follow-up potential is also relatively large; Third, foreign investors have less doubts about the market this time than last time. After the last surge, foreign investment was still generally not optimistic, but the degree of optimism was significantly enhanced this time. (Broker China)The net outflow of the main market exceeded 10 billion.Hongwei Technology: It plans to buy back shares of no more than 50 million yuan. Hongwei Technology announced that the company plans to buy back shares by centralized bidding, and the amount of repurchase is not less than 25 million yuan and not more than 50 million yuan. The source of funds is the company's own funds and special loans for stock repurchase. The repurchased shares will be used for equity incentives or employee stock ownership plans, or for the conversion of corporate bonds issued by listed companies that can be converted into shares. The repurchase price does not exceed 30.12 yuan/share, and the repurchase period is within 12 months after the board of directors deliberates and approves it.
Liang Zhonghua of Haitong Securities: The general direction of "positive" macro policy in 2025 has been determined, and the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee held a meeting on December 9 to analyze and study the economic work in 2025. Liang Zhonghua, chief macro analyst of Haitong Securities, said that judging from the statement of the meeting, the general direction of "positive" macro policy in 2025 is certain. Among them, "supernormal countercyclical adjustment" was put forward for the first time. Liang Zhonghua analyzed that "supernormal adjustment" may be different from QE (quantitative easing) in western countries, but refers to a traditional tool that has grown steadily in the past few years, making a breakthrough on the margin and playing the role of "keeping innovation" and "enriching and perfecting the policy toolbox". Judging from the policies that have been issued since September, this round of steady growth is a steady growth under the framework of "high quality". The high-quality framework will not change, and there will be no strong stimulation of flood irrigation. The meeting proposed to "implement a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy". Liang Zhonghua believes that next year's finance is expected to make further marginal efforts. It is expected that deficit ratio may improve. At present, 3.5%-4.0% is more likely, and the scale of special bonds may be marginally increased. Special government bonds supporting "duality" and "two innovations" will continue to be issued or increased. In addition, the debt-melting policy launched in November will also be the financial focus next year, and it is expected that special government bonds may be issued to supplement bank capital. In addition, the gradual interest rate cut will continue next year, and the structural monetary policy will continue to exert its strength. The meeting stressed that "it is necessary to vigorously boost consumption, improve investment efficiency, and expand domestic demand in all directions." In this regard, Liang Zhonghua believes that compared with Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party's statement of "expanding domestic demand with the focus on boosting consumption" in July, this meeting pays more attention to expanding domestic demand, and its support is expected to be further increased in the future. Since the beginning of this year, with the extra-long special national debt funds in place, the consumption of consumer goods trade-in policy has gradually emerged. There is still room for further efforts to expand domestic demand policies such as replacing old consumer goods with new ones next year. Liang Zhonghua also mentioned that this meeting clearly put forward "stabilizing the property market and stock market", which shows that the policy pays high attention to the property market and stock market. As an important signal to pay attention to the economy and expectations, the policies of the property market and stock market are also positive.General Administration of Customs: In the first 11 months, automobile exports were 762.97 billion yuan, up by 16.9%. According to the data of General Administration of Customs, in the first 11 months, China exported 13.7 trillion yuan of mechanical and electrical products, up by 8.4%, accounting for 59.5% of China's total export value. Among them, automatic data processing equipment and its parts and components were 1.33 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.4%; 1.03 trillion yuan of integrated circuits, up by 20.3%; Mobile phones reached 874.45 billion yuan, down by 0.9%; Automobile was 762.97 billion yuan, up by 16.9%. In the same period, the export of labor products was 3.84 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.2%, accounting for 16.7%. Among them, clothing and clothing accessories were 1.03 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.9%; Textiles were 915.96 billion yuan, up 6%; Plastic products reached 681.09 billion yuan, up 6.9%. The export of agricultural products was 657.34 billion yuan, up by 4.6%. (General Administration of Customs)Spot silver exceeded $32/oz, up 0.54% in the day.
Liu Xu, head of the expert group of the third national survey of agricultural germplasm resources: The germplasm resources improvement plan has been started. On December 10th, 2024, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a press conference on introducing the national survey of agricultural germplasm resources. Liu Xu, an academician of China Academy of Engineering and the leader of the expert group of the third national survey of crop germplasm resources, said at the meeting that most of the resources currently preserved are traditional local varieties and wild related species, on the one hand, they are rich in excellent traits and genetic resources, but most of them are heterogeneous groups, with more genetic burdens, and the good traits are prominent, and the bad ones are also in them, so it is difficult to directly use them in breeding, and it needs to be improved and transformed. Because of the long period, high investment and slow effect of resource improvement, breeders are generally reluctant to engage in the improvement and creation of basic materials, which is one of the important factors that lead to the narrow genetic basis of breeding and restrict the improvement of current breeding innovation ability. This year, we have started to implement the germplasm improvement plan. As the first step, we will start with the most urgent improvement and innovation of maize germplasm resources, try first and try hard to solve the dilemma of insufficient germplasm resources. We want to create a number of excellent varieties that are "available, easy to use and want to use" and provide germplasm support for accelerating the cultivation of breakthrough new varieties. In the next step, we will summarize and implement it while gradually extending it to important crops such as soybeans and rapeseed.In the first 11 months, China's foreign trade in goods reached a steady growth of 39.79 trillion yuan. The General Administration of Customs announced on the 10th that in the first 11 months of this year, the total import and export value of China's goods trade reached 39.79 trillion yuan, up 4.9% year-on-year, achieving steady growth. Among them, the export was 23.04 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%; Imports reached 16.75 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%.General Administration of Customs: Import and export of general trade and processing trade increased. According to customs statistics, in the first 11 months, China's general trade import and export was 25.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.7%, accounting for 64.1% of China's total foreign trade. Among them, the export was 15.04 trillion yuan, up by 7.9%; Imports reached 10.46 trillion yuan, down 1.8%. In the same period, the import and export of processing trade was 7.22 trillion yuan, up by 3.6%, accounting for 18.1%. Among them, exports were 4.58 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.8%; Imports reached 2.64 trillion yuan, up 6.9%. In addition, China's import and export by bonded logistics was 5.64 trillion yuan, an increase of 13%. Among them, exports were 2.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.9%; Imports reached 3.44 trillion yuan, up by 14.4%.
Strategy guide
12-13
Strategy guide 12-13